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Dynamic Simulation Analysis of Carbon Sequestration of Forest Land Uses in the Philippines
Dissertation Abstract:
In this study, a dynamic simulation model was developed to analyze the potential of major forest land uses in the Philippines to store and release atmospheric carbon. The study involved using the models to assess the capability of major forest land uses to sequester carbon. It also sought to estimate the level of carbon storage, release, and sequestration of the major forest land uses in various forest resource management scenarios that include “business as usual,” total log ban, and Master Plan scenarios. It also aimed to determine the policy implications of the outcome of the simulation analysis.
Simulation results revealed that forest land-use types have varying levels of C storage, release, and sequestration owing to biomass density, biomass growth rate, aggregate area, and biomass retention during harvest. Average amounts of annual C storage were highest in second-growth forest at 582.55, 521.24 and 587.31 Mt C under the “business as usual,” total log ban and Master Plan scenarios, respectively.
Average annual C releases were highest in forest plantation at 13.09, 11.33, and 13.55 Mt C under the same set of scenarios. Average C sequestrations were highest in forest plantation at 36.13, 31.23, and 31.23 Mt C.
Carbon storage, release, and sequestration in forest land uses also varies in terms of the underlying forest land-use policy due to differences in forest land conversion and forest plantation and agroforestry farm establishment and development rates. Average annual C storage was higher in forest land uses under the Master Plan scenario at 1,936.42 Mt C than those in the “business as usual” and total log ban scenarios which were equivalent to 1,884.54 and 1,828.35 Mt C, respectively. Average annual C release was lower in forest land uses under the Master Plan scenario at 31.60 Mt C than those in the “business as usual” and total log ban scenarios which were equal to 36.74 and 33.79 Mt C.
Average annual C sequestration was higher in forest land uses under the Master Plan scenario at 73.50 Mt C than those under the other scenarios which amounted to 66.70 and 60.80 Mt C, respectively. Carbon storage, release, and sequestration estimates generated by the model were also compared and found to approximate the estimates made in similar studies done by other researchers.
The study demonstrated that forest land-use management policy affects the level at which C is stored in, released from, and sequestered in forest land uses in terms of the manner by which the forest biomass is conserved, enhanced and utilized, and the rate at which they are allowed to be converted to other land uses under various management schemes.