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Impact and Risk Assessment of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Security in Saysathan District, Sayaboury Province, Lao PDR
Thesis Abstract:
It is widely recognized that land use changes are affecting provision of ecosystem services as well as people’s livelihood, especially in rural areas where people are highly dependent on local ecosystem services. This study employed a combination of spatiotemporal analysis, sustainable livelihood approach (SL), Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), and household survey to detect land use change and its drivers; and to assess impact and risk of land use change on provisioning ecosystem services and livelihood security of rural highland villages—namely, Doykao and Paklong, Saysathan District, Sayaboury Province, Lao PDR.
Two temporal Landsat images—Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIRS) acquired in February of 2005 and 2014, respectively, were used for land use change analysis in this study. The analysis addressed four major land use categories that were highly related to the livelihood of the studied communities: forest area, upland rice field, fallow, and urban or residential area. The results in both Doykao and Paklong villages highlighted a large decrease in forest areas from 1,388.34 ha and 2,069.92 ha in 2005, to 670.66 ha and 1,511.24 ha in 2014, respectively. These results were consistent with the perception of the local residents that address moderate to high degrees of land use changes. The responses from the focus group discussions and the household survey indicate that these changes in land use have been primarily driven by the government’s policies, increasing population, and forest fire, which were actually caused by human activity, specifically upland rice farming.
The reduction of forest area was associated with significant decline of provisioning ecosystem services (ES) and changes in livelihood security of local communities. The household survey of 70 households revealed that the overall index value of provisioning ecosystem services in both Doykao and Paklong villages decreased from 0.921 and 0.892 in 2005 to 0.426 and 0.450 in 2014, respectively. The decline in provisioning ecosystem services also influenced the state of livelihood security, especially natural capital, which was concurrently decreased in the two villages from 0.779 and 0.737 in 2005 to 0.357 and 0.394 in 2014, respectively. However, composite indices of both villages similarly increased from 0.567 and 0.757 in 2005 to 0.579 and 0.740 in 2014, respectively. These indicate that the condition of livelihood security of the selected communities have considerably improved from moderate to good during the past decade.
Three future scenarios—namely, “business as usual” (BAU), “desirable future” (DF), and “undesirable future” (UDF) were collectively developed to find out potential risks on provisioning ecosystem services and livelihood security of local communities. This finding highlights that the stakeholders were able to envisage the future directions of their community and livelihood development. The strong concerns were similarly given for the degradation of land and forest resources, which were perceived as the main sources of food and income of the locals.
This study suggests that it is essential to integrate ecosystem service aspects, i.e., natural capital, in development planning to maintain and use these resources in a sustainable way. Alternative activities for income and food should be supported. In addition, it is vital to give different stakeholders the opportunity to participate in key decisions. The local state sectors in charge of policy implementation should take into account the connectedness among the five livelihood capitals as well as the policy and institutional structure clearly stated by the SL approach, and should mainstream the approach into the process of the rural development planning. Simultaneously, this concept should be an input into local development planning to derive a robust and sustainable future plan.