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Vulnerability assessment of rice farming provinces to climate change in Mekong River delta and Red River delta in Vietnam
Thesis Abstract:
Mekong River delta and Red River delta are the two largest agricultural production regions of Vietnam which contribute more than 66 percent of the rice production in Vietnam. However, the projected changes in climate are considered to cause adverse impacts on the rice production of provinces within the deltas. This study assessed the vulnerability of rice farming provinces in Mekong River delta and Red River delta to provide information for decisionmakers to design appropriate adaptation and mitigation plan for the deltas.
The results of the vulnerability index in Mekong River delta showed that paddy farming in Ca Mau and Tra Vinh were most vulnerable to climate change. The provinces with medium vulnerability were Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, and Ben Tre; while all provinces with high vulnerability were located in coastal zones.
In Red River delta, rice farming in Quang Ninh had the lowest vulnerability. There were three provinces with low-medium vulnerability: Ha Nam, Vinh Phuc, and Ninh Binh. Thai Binh, Hai Phong, Nam Dinh, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, and Hung Yen had medium vulnerability, most of which were located in coastal zones. Ha Noi had the highest vulnerability.
The results for the simulation model of paddy yield under different scenarios showed decreases in the paddy yield in Mekong River delta. Specifically, the yield of spring paddy decreases 6 percent; autumn paddy, 2 percent; winter paddy, 4 percent; and autumn-winter paddy, 4 percent in 2050. In the Red River delta, there are great increases in paddy yield in spring season (18%) and decreases in winter season (4%). The impacts of changes in temperature and rainfall can only be seen clearly during winter months when temperature and rainfall are low. Changes in climate conditions would cause stresses on the crop cycle, which will reduce the paddy yield.